Yes, and thank you so much for saying that. It’s what I’ve thought all along.
Yes. They adjust the pool size so that it saves test kits. It works best when only a small percentage of tests are positive. Some hospitals have been doing it so they have capacity to test every Covid ward staffer daily.
The implementation details that you’ve alluded to are intriguing. I’ll have to read more about it. I had simply assumed that if any trace of covid was found in a pool, the entire pool would be tested/traced further.
Test ten samples in a batch. If it comes back positive, test all ten people again indiviually. The farther under 10% your average positivity rate, the more test kits you’ll save.
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OK, that makes sense.
All of those in the positive pools would be retested. But of course not all pools of any reasonable size would test positive – more so as the average positivity rate within the population is smaller. Hence a savings in time and kits.
The success of this approach with covid ward staff at some hospitals as you mentioned is compelling.
I can almost visualize the shape of a plot of either time or kits saved, vs. pool size. Starting at zero savings with a pool size of one (person), and extending on the horizontal axis to an essentially infinite number of people in the pool (say, 1000, 5000) – where again the savings would be zero because all such gigantic pools would test positive – it seems there has to be an optimal pool size (maximum value in this instance).
There’s no doubt a different optimum for each location; TBD empirically. Nevertheless, I’ll take a stab at it and guess (as in “guess”) that the optimal pool size is somewhere between 5 and 10 people.
Whatever the optimum number, if this approach really works, it would help a lot. That’d be great.
Lordie, Lordie. Just after bars were re-opened they’re being ordered to shutter again. Because a few were found breaking the Latest Rules of The County Regarding the Coronavirus Shutdown and Re-Opening Mess.
Newsom is really jerking us around. I think he means well but for some reason can’t truly empathize with the suffering business owners and workers that he’s killing just because there were a few obstreperous groups and out-of-bounds places.
Punish the masses for the sins of a few? That seems to be Newsom’s mantra.
Hard to believe I voted for him.
Happy Fourth of July
I think he’s looking at the data and making politically-unpopular (to some people) decisions in an attempt to keep more people out of the hospital and to save lives. He’s chosing to do what is ethically right: lives before profit.
Does this hurt bar owners and staff? Yes. There is no getting around that and I think it’s doubtful Newsom is unaware of the fact - and I think he does, likely, empathize with the affected individuals.
So why is he specifically targeting bars? Because they’re spaces where it is difficult to maintain social distancing and where, as more alcohol is consumed, the less people are making sober, thoughtful decisions in terms of the social distancing, mask wearing, hand-washing, and everything else.
I don’t know what the current numbers are for SD County, but as of yesterday LA County is saying an estimated 1 in 140 people have the virus and may be asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic (or even have mild symptoms but chalk them up to being stressed/allergies/typical headache, etc. - note that this parenthetical suggestion is my assumption).
Right now the virus is spreading unchecked, again; we’d made progress toward flattening the curve but that’s evaporated. We’re not looking at a second wave - we’re emerging from a trough in the first.
This is a lousy, scary time. Some people are putting their selfish desires of “personal freedom” before the health, safety, and well-being of others.
Newsom has two choices: do nothing, in which case we (meaning all Californians, but the inevitable ripples/tsunamis throughout other states and then the nation) are screwed economically, with an overwhelmed healthcare system, over-extended first responders, a whole lot more essential workers getting ill … and, ultimately, a lot of suffering and death.
His other choice? Toggle back reopenings, keep pushing for personal accountability, and do his damndest to get the numbers to something akin to “manageable.” And hope/pray that this can become less politicized and more focused on safety and life.
I respect what he’s trying to do; I don’t always agree with his decisions, but I trust he’s doing his best to manage a complex and dynamic threat.
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I keep coming back to this:
United we stand, divided we fall.
We all need to make sacrifices.
We all need to put the greater good - the health and safety of those around us - before our individual desires.
We all must make rational, thoughtful, compassionate decisions - Now.
Else we are all screwed.
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Before politics Gavin Newsom was in the restaurant business in SF. That was many, many years ago, but he is not unfamiliar with the industry and it’s challenges.
The New York Times ran this article yesterday about the rapid increase in Covid cases in CA . I thought it was a pretty good article that summed up our situation pretty well.
San Diego did an excellent job of keeping the coronavirus in check up until about 2 weeks ago. We were well below both SF and LA and many smaller counties. Because it was well below thresholds, SD ask for, and received, permission to fast track reopening. Now we’re seeing large daily spikes in positive cases and an increase in hospitalizations. Still not to the extent that LA is, but worse than it ever was during shelter in place. Bars, breweries and wineries are set to close again on Wednesday. I suspect there will be more closures to come.
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I suspect you are right.
One of my frustrations (though I’m not sure what the alternative would be) is the reopening of various counties at different rates; seems to me, and from what I have read, the more services available “nearby” the more likely people from areas which are under more stringent controls (due to the infection numbers in that area) are to travel to a locale with more options, thus bringing with them a greater risk of asymptomatic transmission spreading.
I’m not an epidemiologist, nor in the medical or statistical fields. I understand enough, though, to see this being an issue.
All of this is new ground for the generations who didn’t live through the 1918-1919 influenza, yet there is much we need to incorporate from what was learned about that.
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I agree. In SD county, we have been fortunate. We have a total of 6000 hospital beds, of which 4000 are in use for all reasons. That’s almost been constant. Of those 4000, nominally 350, give or take a few, have been in use by covid patients, throughout all of April, May, and June – until just recently. Now there are 450 beds in use by covid patients.
The ratio of positive tests to total tests had been dropping and had leveled off at about 3% until the end of May. It’s now gone back up to 4%, which is the level it was last at mid-May.
So we do still have considerable headroom in SD county, but the upward trends are disturbing. I don’t think it’s totally due to the re-opening of bars, though.
Newsom is not “jerking around” but is doing the only sensible things to save as many lives as possible. He is not reacting on a few “groups and places” but it is quite obvious that a significant part of the population hasn’t understood yet that if we are not following basic rules, e.g. mask, social distancing everywhere even beaches etc., we will have lock down after lock down (and many more restaurants nit surviving). We can’t force the virus to do what we want but the virus is dictating our behavior - don’t complain about Newsom, complain about way too many people not following basic rules (and a federal government who doesn’t write a law for mandatory masks everywhere (which wouldn’t solve everything but would help tremendously (including many industries like restaurants)
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A competent federal government who would come up and enforce key rules/laws like many other countries do around the world instead of pushing everything to the state and local level (and a population with a basic understanding of science would be also quite helpful)
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Zonies have certainly had an impact with 11 testing positive at San Diego hospitals last couple of days. Really ought to take this seriously with an interstate travel ban for non-essential motorists. I normally travel to our Arizona property twice a year but no way am I going to risk others or myself for almost purely unnecessary travel. Stunning that others don’t see the risk in non-essential travel.
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Very interesting.
Here’s a thought in terms of an alternative.
Rather than control excess transmission by way of binary restrictions (“on-off” switches, as is done now), use an analog approach (“dimmer” switches.) Reduce the number of people exposed and the duration of exposure by, for example, reducing hours or days of operation of bars, etc., by the minimum amount needed to gain control. This is as opposed to allowing them to be “fully open” or forcing all of them to be “fully closed”. An analog approach of that nature would keep affected businesses running, albeit at variably reduced levels (up to and including fully open, or fully closed). It would allow for more flexibility by the government and much smoother transitions to control the virus spread in identified “hot spots”.
If bars in LA are thought to be a source of increased transmission, for example, their legal days open or hours open (or both) would be gradually cut back. It might end up having to be by quite a bit, but not necessarily total closure. In SD, where there’s much more hospital headroom (right now), the fractional amount of cutback in days/hours could be less. There would still be regionally-variable control, but the incentive to drive to other regions with less stringent constraints would be reduced.
And we’re seeing more closures plus a curfew.
Bars, wineries and breweries that do NOT serve food have to shutter, those that serve food, even if it’s catered in or via a food truck, have to close by 10 pm, everyone must be seated and no drinking while standing. Restaurants were told today they have to adhere to the curfew and are looking at another shut down if things don’t improve. Nail salons have been identified as a transmission source in SD so they’re probably next on the reclosure list.
Really, nail salons - people risk their lives for nail salons ? I guess your nails have to look good in the coffin
LOL…mine are pretty raggedy. I’m not sure why nails are a priority but apparently it’s a problem in areas other than San Diego too.
The “curfew” of 10 pm in SD County that was announced just last night for all restaurants has some aspect of the analog approach that I was suggesting, except that IMO it should also apply to bars that don’t serve food. They too should be allowed to be open – until curfew.
Actually, if I were making the rules, I’d move back the opening time for bars and restaurants, rather than the closing time, to reduce total daily patrons by the same amount, while leaving “night life” more or less in place. It could accomplish the same thing. Say, bars not open until 8 pm, closed by 12, or something like that. Restaurants open from 6 pm to 11 pm, perhaps.
The other possibility would be to leave things as they were as of yesterday (June 30), but allow bars to be open only on Wed - Sat; restaurants open Wed - Sun; no change in hours.
If this doesn’t reduce new infections sufficiently, the hours or days are reduced further. But neither restaurants nor bars are closed completely.
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