I’m not sure that I understand your point. Your curvefit has positive slope and positive curvature from the beginning. There’s an inflection point about half-way through, then negative curvature, suggesting that the end of the upward trend (positive slope) is being approached. If you went just one or two bar graph data points further, that would even be more evident. If this were a chart of ICU beds occupied, that’d be a good sign.
I think that if I were watching data on ICU occupancy and fitting a running average curve to it, a change from a negative slope with almost zero curvature to a negative slope with positive curvature would be a red flag. Not a trigger to slam on the brakes, but maybe a signal to initiate some amount of additional control by dialing things down a little. It would be a bad sign (early September).
If the trend continued, I’d dial down some more (late September). Go back up if after a couple of weeks or so the trend changed course, otherwise dial back a little more still.
If the originally-negative slope changed to near-zero, as it did in early October, the amount of dialback would have to be increased. And after that if it went to a positive slope, still more dialback (mid-October).
There was no dialback from early September until very recently (when SD County was abruptly thrown into Newsom’s Purple Tier 1); there was no soft “dimmer switch” control. And now the emergency brake (a semi-lockdown) has been applied, so suddenly; so late in the day.
If you’re talking about the tail of your bar chart, I’d say that at about the 16th point from the end there’s a positive curvature, and at the 9th point from the end a strong positive curvature.
Maybe the only solution is . Shut every business down for 7 weeks including gas stations and grocery. Fire , police, and ambulance only . No going out of the house . If caught outside you will be arrested with a huge fine . And then incarnated for 2 months . It’s going to be a year . Nothing has happened. Its just political guess work .
Maybe, but that window of opportunity has long passed. We’ve had no national leadership on this the entre time, leaving states, counties, and municipalities to invent their own makeshift controls. So the question is what to do now, and Newsom’s lockdown isn’t the answer.
If we don’t want to lose 1/4 million people very soon only a hard lockdown (with government payments for people who can’t work from home easily etc.) and than also follow up regulations like nationwide mask mandate until complete vaccine rollout, serious contract tracing nationwide etc. will help. Other countries have shown that it works.
You might comply, I might comply, but half of the other 330 million people in the US might not. The states are independent; national coercion isn’t realistic. So we need another solution.
We need national leadership which puts a lot of pressure on states who don’t want to follow etc. (obviously not having it started that way last February makes it very hard now but not impossible). Every other approach will fail as only lockdowns have worked anywhere to bring down the numbers to a level where you can implement non-lockdown measures. If you are not willing to accept it than you are willing to let >250000 people unnecessarily die. There is no other solution at this point. People always want many different options but sometimes it is just black/white.
I’m pro-mask, pro-vaccine, but not so much pro-lockdown. I might have been in February, but now I’m just trying to be realistic. Don’t blame people who try to find alternative, realistic solutions. Yes, we’re going to lose lives, but hey, it isn’t our fault.
I was happy to see that Biden is going to appoint Dr. Fauci to head his covid task force. We definitely do need competent and credible national leadership.
I haven’t seen anywhere any even remotely other “realistic” solution (but I have seen many epidemiologists from the start and even now saying again and again that lockdowns are necessary to get to manageable numbers). And sometimes looking for other solutions when experts say there are no real other solutions makes one also guilty of ignoring unnecessary death
But that’s just the problem. Right now we need those epidemiologists to work with control theory experts to find a “remotely other ‘realistic’ solution”.
No, we don’t need them to work with them because they will say rightly that only a hard lockdown will help. And I know from discussions with them that they wouldn’t support understandably other approaches at this point as they wouldn’t be successful.
Fauci isn’t going to make the decisions; he’s going to lead the team. He’ll also be a spokesman; he’s widely respected and admired by a large segment of the population. I’ve said that before. At first, I was pretty much anti-Fauci, if you look at old posts. But when he became the soft-spoken, good bedside manner Doctor with high visibility on virtually every medium, I felt differently.
You can be sure that Fauci will make key decisions when working with Biden. He isn’t just there to be the nice, old doctor for TV - you obviously haven’t seen his previous work and clearly underestimate his ability in decision making in a working government